Octane—Cliff or Catalyst? Rethinking Enrollment Strategy
As Senior Director of Data & Strategic Initiatives at the National College Attainment Network (NCAN), Bill DeBaun speaks with quiet conviction about what many college presidents consider an existential threat: the looming demographic decline in college-age students.
“I call it the enrollment bunny hill,” DeBaun says with a slight smile, rejecting the usual doomsday language. “If I have to fall, I hope it looks like this: gentle and gradual, not a cartoon-style plunge.”
This perspective shift feels refreshing in a landscape often dominated lately by less-than-cheerful forecasts. But DeBaun isn’t dismissing the challenge out-of-hand, he’s reframing it as an opportunity.
“This demographic shift has been on the horizon for a long time. We’ve seen this iceberg dead ahead,” he notes. “If you’ve picked the low-hanging fruit on the enrollment tree, you need to climb higher into the branches to get to students who have been underserved.”
For presidents and enrollment leaders seeking sustainable solutions to reach those students, DeBaun offers several promising pathways.
RETHINK YOUR PIPELINE
“There are still many, many students who graduate from high school capable of succeeding on college campuses who do not have the opportunity to pursue postsecondary education,” DeBaun emphasizes. First-generation students and those from low-income backgrounds represent an “under-tapped resource” for institutions struggling with enrollment.
Equally important is the pool of over 36 million Americans with “some college, no credential.”1 Among this group, re-enrollment increased 9.1% in the 2022-23 academic year, indicating a growing interest in returning to complete degrees.2 Institutions with effective re-enrollment strategies can tap this massive potential market.
BRIDGE K-12 & HIGHER EDUCATION SILOS
Perhaps DeBaun’s most compelling insight involves breaking down traditional barriers between K-12 and higher education systems.
“Too often the water’s edge for K-12 has stopped at high school graduation, and for higher ed, it hasn’t picked up until welcome week,” he observes. That gap can lead many students to fall between the cracks and fail to enroll even if they’re still interested in college in general. One study found that, among students not enrolling immediately, 53% planned to start at a two-year college, while 4% planned to take a “gap” semester before enrolling and 9% formally deferred enrollment; only 3% decided against college altogether.3 That means there’s a lot of room to re-capture students’ interest and drive them toward enrollment.
DeBaun highlights 3 state-level approaches showing particular promise:
- Dual enrollment programs that allow high school students to earn college credit, building confidence and momentum toward degree completion
- Universal FAFSA policies that make financial aid application completion a high school graduation requirement, which data shows increases both FAFSA completion and college enrollment rates
- Direct admissions approaches where institutions proactively notify qualified students of their acceptance, removing application barriers and signaling institutional interest in their enrollment
FORM STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS
When asked about his advice for institutions, DeBaun focuses on the power of partnerships.
“If you’re a college or university, what kinds of partnerships can you build with your sending districts and schools? Are you in contact with district leaders who are sending you students for your class?” He elaborates: “If you’re sending a large chunk of your high school seniors to the same institution year after year, you should know how they’re doing when they get there, and have a relationship to ask, ‘How can my students be better prepared?’”
TRACK THE RIGHT METRICS
Rather than focusing exclusively on semester-to-semester persistence, DeBaun advocates for more immediate indicators.
“Are students coming to class? Are you checking in with them about their experience?” he asks. “If we wait until the end of a semester to see who returns, you’ve already lost students you could have retained by acting in the moment.”
THE FAFSA ROLLERCOASTER & HOPE AHEAD
After watching FAFSA completion rates plummet during the problem-plagued redesign rollout for the class of 2024, DeBaun shares encouraging news: completions are up 25% year-over-year for the class of 2025, potentially returning to pre-pandemic levels.
This matters because historically, FAFSA completion correlates strongly with enrollment. Interestingly, however, last year’s sharp FAFSA decline didn’t translate to an equally sharp enrollment drop.
DeBaun’s message is clear: the enrollment challenge isn’t insurmountable, but it requires fresh thinking and collaborative approaches.
“The mission is too important and the job is too large for any stakeholder to go it alone,” he says. By embracing underserved student populations, forming creative partnerships, and implementing proven support strategies, institutions can navigate the “bunny hill” ahead and emerge stronger on the other side.
For more information about NCAN membership or their national conference, visit NCAN.org.
About the Author
Susanna Lehman, MBA, is enrollmentFUEL’s Vice President of Strategic Enterprise Solutions. With nearly 20 years of experience in admissions, she has worked with a wide range of student populations, including undergraduate, graduate, adult, seminary, and performing arts students. Susanna brings deep knowledge of Slate, having led implementations, audits, and a wide variety of projects during her time as Vice President of Slate Education. She is passionate about helping institutions navigate complex enrollment challenges with strategic, customized solutions. Feel free to connect with Susanna at Susanna.Lehman@enrollmentFUEL.com.
Bill DeBaun is Senior Director of Data & Strategic Initiatives at the National College Attainment Network (NCAN), where he helps schools, nonprofits, and state agencies use data to improve postsecondary outcomes. He leads NCAN’s widely cited FormYourFuture FAFSA Tracker and manages the Benchmarking Project, analyzing outcomes for 500,000+ students. His work appears in major media and informs national education policy. Bill holds a BA from American University and a Master of Public Policy from The George Washington University, focused on education policy.
- “Some College, No Credential Student Outcomes: 2024 Report for the Nation and the States .” National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. 6 June 2024. https://nscresearchcenter.org/some-college-no-credential/.
- National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2024.
- Goebel, Crag, et al. “Who Isn’t Planning to Go to College?” studentPOLL by Art & Science Group LLC 17.2. June 2024. https://www.artsci.com/student-poll/studentpoll-volume-17-issue-2.
